-
spurgeoncc likes this
-
mickeyrlcmcclel posted this
Dollar demand for UK RMBS
David Wallis, head of funding at Nationwide, explained that
as the institution typically had low funding needs and was an
infrequent issuer (this is its third public RMBS in three
years), he was confident of a positive reaction for Silverstone
2011-1.And to give investors as broad an opportunity as possible to
access the programme, roadshows were scheduled for the week of
October 3 in the US and Europe showing three and five-year
bonds. The issuer was already aware, it seems, of which
investors would express the most interest.”There was an expectation we would meet with strong demand
in US dollars,” said Wallis.The dollar buyers did not disappoint. An initial update
showed demand exceeding US$2.5bn for the three-year while the
five-year sterling tranche lagged behind at £150m. The bonds
were talked in line with Holmes - launched by Santander UK last
month - at 155bp and 165bp area, and emerged at US$2.7bn and
£150m in size at talk.The cost of issuing in euros, meanwhile, remains prohibitive
- so much so that Nationwide avoided euro bonds completely.
Wallis explained that the basis swap between euro and sterling
was around 40bp, or just above, depending on the maturity.”It was difficult to justify issuing in euros for the
economics of the transaction with the basis swap at that level,”
Wallis said. On Friday, the three-year swap was quoted at
37bp/43bp.The size of the dollar tranche clearly compensated for the
lack of euro notes though - as well as limited sterling bonds -
while an usual fixed-rate dollar piece was added late on in the
process. “We had interest from investors for a long-dated
tranche and looked at a number of maturities. Nine years hit the
right spot,” said Wallis.This tranche pays 4.15% until 2020, and then reverts to
floating.RBS, meanwhile, pre-placed its deal entirely. Arran 2011-2,
as with Silverstone, contained minimal sterling issuance, with
investors seemingly preferring the liquidity of dollars.
Printing on Monday, Arran was sold almost exclusively to JP
Morgan and Citigroup (or affiliates of these two). Its structure
included just £220m of sterling bonds, ?220m of euro notes and
US$1.895bn in US dollars.JP Morgan bought the majority of the US$725m one-year Class
A1c at three-month Libor plus 135bp and some of the 2.8-year
£70m and ?220m Classes A2a and A2b at 160bp and 155bp
respectively. Citigroup, meanwhile, also took some of the Class
A2 bonds, and most of the £150m and US$500m 4.6-year Classes A3a
and A3c at spreads of 175bp.
STRUCTURAL VARIATIONS
These levels are 5bp wider than Silverstone and Holmes for the
three-year dollar notes and 10bp outside for the five-year
bonds. Arran, however, typically trades back of Holmes and one
source involved in the deal said it was down to it offering a
standalone issue versus a master trust structure.Portfolio features may have also been an influence as Arran
pool’s was just three months seasoned, included some buy-to-let
as well as product switches. This resulted in credit enhancement
of 22.4%, higher than both Holmes 2011-3 (16%) and Silverstone
2011-1 (17.2%).The demarcation between standalone and master trust has much
larger pricing implications for the very short tranches with
average lives of around a year or so. Hard bullets from master
trusts aimed at US money market funds under Rule 2a7, for
example, price more than 100bp inside amortising bonds in
standalone issues.One source away from the deals explained that master trust
structures such as those used by Santander (Fosse and Holmes)
and Lloyds this year (Arkle) can factor in short-dated hard
bullets because of the larger number of mortgages in a trust
than in a single deal.There is more more cash flowing from the mortgage pool to
assure investors of payment by a certain date. Typical
pass-through deals would depend on the payment (CPR) rate, he
said, and so do not have that guarantee. The downside is that
bullets are more collateral-consumptive.Recent 2a7 notes have been priced in the low teens over
Libor with maturities of a year or less. Standalone deals cannot
match this, and even though the tranches at the top of the
structure have short weighted average lives, the legal final
maturities are considerably longer.Arran 2011-1, for example, had a one-year average life on
its US$725m Class A1c, but a legal final maturity of 2048 - far
too long for money market funds - which accounts for the 122bp
pricing differential between this piece at 13bp and the 0.8-year
tranche of Holmes.SIZE ACHIEVABLE IN DOLLARS
What Holmes, Arran and now Silverstone 2011-1 do all have in
common is highlighting that the US dollar market remains the
only place to get deals done in size. These three have sold
US$8.395bn of dollar bonds - that equates to a hefty 85% of the
issues - compared with just £555m in sterling and only ?420m in
euros.And it may not only be UK issuers that are coveting the US
investor base, as sources suggest that Dutch issuers are also
eyeing the market. It may not necessarily be in US
dollar-denominated bonds, but funded in euros should they obtain
144a issuance capability. Doing so would allow them to target a
large investor base that is clearly hungry for the spread
offered by European products.It may require some explanation of the near 100% LTVs, or
higher in some cases, that characterise Dutch RMBS, but from an
investment point it can provide a substantial pick up from an
asset class that has performed extremely well throughout the
crisis.One European investor even estimated that a US buyer could
make up to 50bp investing in a five-year or shorter
euro-denominated Dutch RMBS paying around 155bp and swapping it
to dollars.